Two Future ICE-ages between 0 - 30000 years are cancelled due to fossil fluel CO2 emissions ?

Discussion:

(too old to reply)

Hannu Poropudas

2022-07-08 07:59:49 UTC

Astronomical Climate Index Reference:

Matthews, J.V. Jr., 1984.
The astronomical climatic index and its value for predicting
future climate.
Atomic Energy Canada, Limitted.
Workshop of transitional processes, Ottawa, Canada 4-5 Oct. 1982,
Proceedings AECL-7822, 40-57.
(FIGURE 2: The Last Glacial Cycle and the Projected Climate of
the Next 60 Thousand Years. Page 43.)

Climate Scenarios for next 120000 years Reference:

Pimenoff, N., Venäläinen, A., Järvinen, H., 2011.
Climate Scenarios for Olkiluoto on a Time-Scale of 120,000 years.
Posiva-Raportti - Posiva Report, POSIVA 2011-04, Posiva Oy Olkiluoto,
December 2011, 102 pages.
ISBN 978-951-652-181-0.
(Tiivistelmä - Abstract.)

Please take a look these papers. I think that both could also be available
from the net (pdf-format).

Hannu Poropudas
Kolamäentie 9E,
90900 Kiiminki / Oulu
Finland

Hannu Poropudas

2022-07-13 07:04:43 UTC

Permalink

Post by Hannu Poropudas
Matthews, J.V. Jr., 1984.
The astronomical climatic index and its value for predicting
future climate.
Atomic Energy Canada, Limitted.
Workshop of transitional processes, Ottawa, Canada 4-5 Oct. 1982,
Proceedings AECL-7822, 40-57.
(FIGURE 2: The Last Glacial Cycle and the Projected Climate of
the Next 60 Thousand Years. Page 43.)
Pimenoff, N., Venäläinen, A., Järvinen, H., 2011.
Climate Scenarios for Olkiluoto on a Time-Scale of 120,000 years.
Posiva-Raportti - Posiva Report, POSIVA 2011-04, Posiva Oy Olkiluoto,
December 2011, 102 pages.
ISBN 978-951-652-181-0.
(Tiivistelmä - Abstract.)
Please take a look these papers. I think that both could also be available
from the net (pdf-format).
Hannu Poropudas
Kolamäentie 9E,
90900 Kiiminki / Oulu
Finland

Two references of Sea Level Rise (although uncertainties of these measurements are quite large):

1. Sweet,W.V. et al, 2022.
Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States:
Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities along U.S. Coastlines.
NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp.
(
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf
)

copy from page xii:
“Relative sea level along the contiquous U.S. (CONUS) coastline is expected to rise
on average as much over the next 30 years (0.25 – 0.30 m over 2020-2050) as it has
over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020).”

This would give sea level rise 0.83 cm/year – 1.00 cm/year.

Assumption is below calculation that this sea level rise remains constant.

Sea level rise 7.4 m would take time from 7.40*100*cm*year/1*cm = 740 years to
7.40*100*cm*year/(0.83*cm) = 892 years.

(time estimate for example Greenland ice melt would rise sea level 7.4 m and
this would take time 740 – 892 years)

2. RISING WATERS How NASA Monitoring Sea Level Rise
https://nasa.gov/specials/sea-level-rise-2020

Sea Level Rise (copy part of the text below in “ “ ):
“3.3 mm/year“
“This is 30% more than when NASA launched its first satellite mission to measure
ocean height in 1992.”
(12.7.2022 taken from the net)

This would give 2.31 mm/year in 1993 and 3.3 mm/year in 2020,
(2020-1993 = 27 years).

Acceleration = a = change in velocity / change in time =

a = (0.99 / 27) *mm/year^2 = 0.036666666 mm/year^2.

Sea Level height would be a simple formula h = (1/2)*a*t^2, where unit of t is years and
unit of h is mm.

Assumption below calculation is that acceleration a remains constant.

7.4 m = 7400 mm = (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 635 years.

(time estimate for example Greenland ice melt would rise sea level 7.4 m and
this would take time 635 years)

Some other random sea level values and corresponding time estimates:

1.0 m = 1000 mm = (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 234 years.

0.5 m = 500 mm = (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 165 years.

0.3 m = 300 mm = (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 128 years.

0.2 m = 200 mm = (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 104 years.

Best Regards,

Hannu Poropudas
Kolamäentie 9E,
90900 Kiiminki / Oulu
Finland

Hannu Poropudas

2022-07-14 06:45:49 UTC

Permalink

Post by Hannu Poropudas

1. Sweet,W.V. et al, 2022.
Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities along U.S. Coastlines.
NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp.
(
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf
)
“Relative sea level along the contiquous U.S. (CONUS) coastline is expected to rise
on average as much over the next 30 years (0.25 – 0.30 m over 2020-2050) as it has
over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020).”
This would give sea level rise 0.83 cm/year – 1.00 cm/year.
Assumption is below calculation that this sea level rise remains constant.
Sea level rise 7.4 m would take time from 7.40*100*cm*year/1*cm = 740 years to
7.40*100*cm*year/(0.83*cm) = 892 years.
(time estimate for example Greenland ice melt would rise sea level 7.4 m and
this would take time 740 – 892 years)
2. RISING WATERS How NASA Monitoring Sea Level Rise
https://nasa.gov/specials/sea-level-rise-2020
“3.3 mm/year“
“This is 30% more than when NASA launched its first satellite mission to measure
ocean height in 1992.”
(12.7.2022 taken from the net)
This would give 2.31 mm/year in 1993 and 3.3 mm/year in 2020,
(2020-1993 = 27 years).
Acceleration = a = change in velocity / change in time =
a = (0.99 / 27) *mm/year^2 = 0.036666666 mm/year^2.
Sea Level height would be a simple formula h = (1/2)*a*t^2, where unit of t is years and
unit of h is mm.
Assumption below calculation is that acceleration a remains constant.
7.4 m = 7400 mm = (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 635 years.
(time estimate for example Greenland ice melt would rise sea level 7.4 m and
this would take time 635 years)
1.0 m = 1000 mm = (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 234 years.
0.5 m = 500 mm = (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 165 years.
0.3 m = 300 mm = (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 128 years.
0.2 m = 200 mm = (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 104 years.
Best Regards,
Hannu Poropudas
Kolamäentie 9E,
90900 Kiiminki / Oulu
Finland

CORRECTION: One term v*t added to the formula due approximation fit to the satellite measurement picture.
(Whole last posting rewritten below, I'am sorry about my mistake in that last posting of mine)

Two references of Sea Level Rise:

1. Sweet,W.V. et al, 2022.
Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States:
Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities along U.S. Coastlines.
NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp.
(
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf
)

copy from page xii:
“Relative sea level along the contiquous U.S. (CONUS) coastline is expected to rise
on average as much over the next 30 years (0.25 – 0.30 m over 2020-2050) as it has
over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020).”

This would give sea level rise 0.83 cm/year – 1.00 cm/year.

Assumption is below calculation that this sea level rise remains constant.

Sea level rise 7.4 m would take time from 7.40*100*cm*year/1*cm = 740 years to
7.40*100*cm*year/(0.83*cm) = 892 years.

(time estimate example amount of Greenland ice melt would rise global sea level 7.4 m
and this would take time 740 – 892 years ?)

2. Ramsayer Kate, 2022.
RISING WATERS How NASA Monitoring Sea Level Rise.
https://www.nasa.gov/specials/sea-level-rise-2020
(.html format article, 12.7.2022)

Picture (.PNG format) axes of which are: vertical axis: Sea Height Variations (mm), (0-100)
horizontal axis: YEARS, (1993-2022). RATE OF CHANGE 3.4 millimeters per year since 1993.

Satellite Data: 1993-Present.
Data Source: Satellite sea level observations.
Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.

Source: climate.nasa.gov

Sea Level Rise (copy parts of the text below in “ “ ):

“Global Mean Sea Level from 1993 to 2020 has been rising about 3.3 millimeters per year.
This number is calculated by averaging sea surface height data from a series of satellites:
TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, OSTM/Jason-2 and Jason-3. The data is recorded continues with
the launch of Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich. (Credit: NASA).”

“Global sea level is rising approximately 0.13 inches ( 3.3 millimeters) a year“

“That’s 30% more than when NASA launched its first satellite mission to measure
heights in 1992.”
(12.7.2022 taken from the net and also .PNG snapshot picture was taken.)

This would give 2.31 mm/year in 1993 and 3.3 mm/year in 2020,
(2020-1993 = 27 years).

Acceleration = a = change in velocity / change in time =

a = (0.99 / 27) *mm/year^2 = 0.036666666 mm/year^2.

Velocity = v = change in height / change in time =

v = 3.3 mm/year

Global Sea Level height would be approximated roughly by a simple formula

h = v*t + (1/2)*a*t^2,

where unit of t is years and unit of h is mm.

Assumptions below calculation are that acceleration a and velocity v remain constant.

7400 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 551 years.

(time estimate for example amount of Greenland ice melt would rise global sea level 7.4 m
and this would take time 551 years ?)

Some other random global sea level rise values and corresponding time estimates:

1000 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 160 years.

500 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 98 years.

300 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 66 years.

200 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 48 years.

100 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 26 years.

50 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 14 years.

10 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 3 years.

Best Regards,

Hannu Poropudas
Kolamäentie 9E,
90900 Kiiminki / Oulu
Finland

Hannu Poropudas

2022-07-18 08:40:04 UTC

Permalink

Post by Hannu Poropudas

CORRECTION: One term v*t added to the formula due approximation fit to the satellite measurement picture.
(Whole last posting rewritten below, I'am sorry about my mistake in that last posting of mine)
1. Sweet,W.V. et al, 2022.
Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities along U.S. Coastlines.
NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp.
(
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf
)
“Relative sea level along the contiquous U.S. (CONUS) coastline is expected to rise
on average as much over the next 30 years (0.25 – 0.30 m over 2020-2050) as it has
over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020).”
This would give sea level rise 0.83 cm/year – 1.00 cm/year.
Assumption is below calculation that this sea level rise remains constant.
Sea level rise 7.4 m would take time from 7.40*100*cm*year/1*cm = 740 years to
7.40*100*cm*year/(0.83*cm) = 892 years.
(time estimate example amount of Greenland ice melt would rise global sea level 7.4 m
and this would take time 740 – 892 years ?)
2. Ramsayer Kate, 2022.
RISING WATERS How NASA Monitoring Sea Level Rise.
https://www.nasa.gov/specials/sea-level-rise-2020
(.html format article, 12.7.2022)
Picture (.PNG format) axes of which are: vertical axis: Sea Height Variations (mm), (0-100)
horizontal axis: YEARS, (1993-2022). RATE OF CHANGE 3.4 millimeters per year since 1993.
Satellite Data: 1993-Present.
Data Source: Satellite sea level observations.
Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.
Source: climate.nasa.gov
“Global Mean Sea Level from 1993 to 2020 has been rising about 3.3 millimeters per year.
TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, OSTM/Jason-2 and Jason-3. The data is recorded continues with
the launch of Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich. (Credit: NASA).”
“Global sea level is rising approximately 0.13 inches ( 3.3 millimeters) a year“
“That’s 30% more than when NASA launched its first satellite mission to measure
heights in 1992.”
(12.7.2022 taken from the net and also .PNG snapshot picture was taken.)
This would give 2.31 mm/year in 1993 and 3.3 mm/year in 2020,
(2020-1993 = 27 years).
Acceleration = a = change in velocity / change in time =
a = (0.99 / 27) *mm/year^2 = 0.036666666 mm/year^2.
Velocity = v = change in height / change in time =
v = 3.3 mm/year
Global Sea Level height would be approximated roughly by a simple formula
h = v*t + (1/2)*a*t^2,
where unit of t is years and unit of h is mm.
Assumptions below calculation are that acceleration a and velocity v remain constant.
7400 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 551 years.
(time estimate for example amount of Greenland ice melt would rise global sea level 7.4 m
and this would take time 551 years ?)
1000 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 160 years.
500 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 98 years.
300 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 66 years.
200 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 48 years.
100 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 26 years.
50 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 14 years.
10 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 3 years.
Best Regards,
Hannu Poropudas
Kolamäentie 9E,
90900 Kiiminki / Oulu
Finland

I found one reference which contained article about regional land uplift in Fennoscandia area
after last ice-age:

Reference:

Veikkolainen, V. , 2013.
Post-glacial rebound: modelling, measurement, significance on society.
pp. 5-21.

Fig 9 / page 18,

LAND UPLIFT 9 mm/year near Oulu in Ostrobotnia area.

Fig. 4 / page 11,

LINEAR LINE (regional uplift dependence on time) picture:

(vertical axis -90 mm to 90 mm, horizontal axis 1997 to 2007 years)
(A continuous time series of the vertical movement of
Kivetty GPS station, central Finland).

In:
Octavian, A., Vermeer, M. (Editors), 2013.
GEONAVPOS: Seminar publications on Geodesy, Navigation and Positioning.
Aalto University publication series Science + Technology 12 / 2013.
Aalto University, School of Engineering, Department of Real Estate,
Planning and Geoinformatics, Geoinformatics Research Group,
ISBN 978-952-60-5214-5 (pdf),
http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-60-5214-4
Unigrafia Oy Helsinki 2013, Finland.
304 pages.

Equality point in years for global sea level rise and different land level rises (uplifts):

3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2 = k*t,

k is uplift constant (regional Fennoscandia / Finland values after last ice-age)
Asumption is that locally k is uplift constant several hundred years, Fig.4 /page 11.

k = 9 mm/year, 8 mm/year, 7 mm/year, 6 mm/year, 5 mm/year, 4 mm/year, (Fig. 9 / page 18).

Corresponding years to these above different k uplift constant values:
1993+311=2304,
1993+256=2249.
1993+202=2195,
1993+147=2140,
1993+93 =2086,
1993+38 =2031

Oulu area in north Finland,
when global sea level rise starts to be greater than regional land uplift, seems to be guite far in future ?

Helsinki area in south Finland seems to fit this last year, which is quite near in future ?

Best Regards,
Hannu Poropudas
Kolamäentie 9E,
90900 Kiiminki / Oulu
Finland

Hannu Poropudas

2022-07-29 07:13:32 UTC

Permalink

Post by Hannu Poropudas

CORRECTION: One term v*t added to the formula due approximation fit to the satellite measurement picture.
(Whole last posting rewritten below, I'am sorry about my mistake in that last posting of mine)
1. Sweet,W.V. et al, 2022.
Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities along U.S. Coastlines.
NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp.
(
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf
)
“Relative sea level along the contiquous U.S. (CONUS) coastline is expected to rise
on average as much over the next 30 years (0.25 – 0.30 m over 2020-2050) as it has
over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020).”
This would give sea level rise 0.83 cm/year – 1.00 cm/year.
Assumption is below calculation that this sea level rise remains constant.
Sea level rise 7.4 m would take time from 7.40*100*cm*year/1*cm = 740 years to
7.40*100*cm*year/(0.83*cm) = 892 years.
(time estimate example amount of Greenland ice melt would rise global sea level 7.4 m
and this would take time 740 – 892 years ?)
2. Ramsayer Kate, 2022.
RISING WATERS How NASA Monitoring Sea Level Rise.
https://www.nasa.gov/specials/sea-level-rise-2020
(.html format article, 12.7.2022)
Picture (.PNG format) axes of which are: vertical axis: Sea Height Variations (mm), (0-100)
horizontal axis: YEARS, (1993-2022). RATE OF CHANGE 3.4 millimeters per year since 1993.
Satellite Data: 1993-Present.
Data Source: Satellite sea level observations.
Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.
Source: climate.nasa.gov
“Global Mean Sea Level from 1993 to 2020 has been rising about 3.3 millimeters per year.
TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, OSTM/Jason-2 and Jason-3. The data is recorded continues with
the launch of Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich. (Credit: NASA).”
“Global sea level is rising approximately 0.13 inches ( 3.3 millimeters) a year“
“That’s 30% more than when NASA launched its first satellite mission to measure
heights in 1992.”
(12.7.2022 taken from the net and also .PNG snapshot picture was taken.)
This would give 2.31 mm/year in 1993 and 3.3 mm/year in 2020,
(2020-1993 = 27 years).
Acceleration = a = change in velocity / change in time =
a = (0.99 / 27) *mm/year^2 = 0.036666666 mm/year^2.
Velocity = v = change in height / change in time =
v = 3.3 mm/year
Global Sea Level height would be approximated roughly by a simple formula
h = v*t + (1/2)*a*t^2,
where unit of t is years and unit of h is mm.
Assumptions below calculation are that acceleration a and velocity v remain constant.
7400 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 551 years.
(time estimate for example amount of Greenland ice melt would rise global sea level 7.4 m
and this would take time 551 years ?)
1000 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 160 years.
500 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 98 years.
300 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 66 years.
200 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 48 years.
100 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 26 years.
50 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 14 years.
10 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 3 years.
Best Regards,
Hannu Poropudas
Kolamäentie 9E,
90900 Kiiminki / Oulu
Finland

I found one reference which contained article about regional land uplift in Fennoscandia area
Veikkolainen, V. , 2013.
Post-glacial rebound: modelling, measurement, significance on society.
pp. 5-21.
Fig 9 / page 18,
LAND UPLIFT 9 mm/year near Oulu in Ostrobotnia area.
Fig. 4 / page 11,
(vertical axis -90 mm to 90 mm, horizontal axis 1997 to 2007 years)
(A continuous time series of the vertical movement of
Kivetty GPS station, central Finland).
Octavian, A., Vermeer, M. (Editors), 2013.
GEONAVPOS: Seminar publications on Geodesy, Navigation and Positioning.
Aalto University publication series Science + Technology 12 / 2013.
Aalto University, School of Engineering, Department of Real Estate,
Planning and Geoinformatics, Geoinformatics Research Group,
ISBN 978-952-60-5214-5 (pdf),
http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-60-5214-4
Unigrafia Oy Helsinki 2013, Finland.
304 pages.
3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2 = k*t,
k is uplift constant (regional Fennoscandia / Finland values after last ice-age)
Asumption is that locally k is uplift constant several hundred years, Fig.4 /page 11.
k = 9 mm/year, 8 mm/year, 7 mm/year, 6 mm/year, 5 mm/year, 4 mm/year, (Fig. 9 / page 18).
1993+311=2304,
1993+256=2249.
1993+202=2195,
1993+147=2140,
1993+93 =2086,
1993+38 =2031
Oulu area in north Finland,
when global sea level rise starts to be greater than regional land uplift, seems to be guite far in future ?
Helsinki area in south Finland seems to fit this last year, which is quite near in future ?
Best Regards,
Hannu Poropudas
Kolamäentie 9E,
90900 Kiiminki / Oulu
Finland

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Post by Hannu Poropudas
# EXAMPLE (calculated with Maple9 program, > is commmand line mark)
# Sea level rise in Helsinki area. FM Hannu Poropudas 29.7.2022
# Sea level rise with land upplift 4 mm/year approximately
# h = sea level rise in Helsinki area
# h = (3.3-k)*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2, k = 4 mm/year,
# starting year = 1993, h in units of mm, t in units of year
# 7400 mm
solve(7400 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -616.5196842, 654.7015024
# 1993+655=2648
# 1000 mm
solve(1000 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -215.2377433, 253.4195615
# 1993+253=2246
# 500 mm
solve(500 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
-147.1534595, 185.3352776
# 1993+185=2178
# 400 mm
solve(400 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -129.8474829, 168.0293011
# 1993+168=2161
# 300 mm
solve(300 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -110.2462440, 148.4280622
# 1993+148=2141
# 200 mm
solve(200 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -87.08608331, 125.2679015
# 1993+125=2118
# 100 mm
solve(100 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -57.19151525, 95.37333342
# 1993+95=2088
# 50 mm
solve(50 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -36.51246794, 74.69428610
# 1993+75=2068
# 40 mm
solve(40 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -31.36977849, 69.55159666
# 1993+70=2063
# 30 mm
solve(30 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -25.63968945, 63.82150762
# 1993+64=2057
# 20 mm
solve(20 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -19.05842774, 57.24024591
# 1993+57=2050
# 10 mm
solve(10 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -11.07392731, 49.25574548
# 1993+49=2042

Best Regards,

Hannu Poropudas

Kolamäentie 9E
90900 Kiiminki / Oulu
Finland

Hannu Poropudas

2022-08-04 15:51:24 UTC

Permalink

Post by Hannu Poropudas

CORRECTION: One term v*t added to the formula due approximation fit to the satellite measurement picture.
(Whole last posting rewritten below, I'am sorry about my mistake in that last posting of mine)
1. Sweet,W.V. et al, 2022.
Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities along U.S. Coastlines.
NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp.
(
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf
)
“Relative sea level along the contiquous U.S. (CONUS) coastline is expected to rise
on average as much over the next 30 years (0.25 – 0.30 m over 2020-2050) as it has
over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020).”
This would give sea level rise 0.83 cm/year – 1.00 cm/year.
Assumption is below calculation that this sea level rise remains constant.
Sea level rise 7.4 m would take time from 7.40*100*cm*year/1*cm = 740 years to
7.40*100*cm*year/(0.83*cm) = 892 years.
(time estimate example amount of Greenland ice melt would rise global sea level 7.4 m
and this would take time 740 – 892 years ?)
2. Ramsayer Kate, 2022.
RISING WATERS How NASA Monitoring Sea Level Rise.
https://www.nasa.gov/specials/sea-level-rise-2020
(.html format article, 12.7.2022)
Picture (.PNG format) axes of which are: vertical axis: Sea Height Variations (mm), (0-100)
horizontal axis: YEARS, (1993-2022). RATE OF CHANGE 3.4 millimeters per year since 1993.
Satellite Data: 1993-Present.
Data Source: Satellite sea level observations.
Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.
Source: climate.nasa.gov
“Global Mean Sea Level from 1993 to 2020 has been rising about 3.3 millimeters per year.
TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, OSTM/Jason-2 and Jason-3. The data is recorded continues with
the launch of Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich. (Credit: NASA).”
“Global sea level is rising approximately 0.13 inches ( 3.3 millimeters) a year“
“That’s 30% more than when NASA launched its first satellite mission to measure
heights in 1992.”
(12.7.2022 taken from the net and also .PNG snapshot picture was taken.)
This would give 2.31 mm/year in 1993 and 3.3 mm/year in 2020,
(2020-1993 = 27 years).
Acceleration = a = change in velocity / change in time =
a = (0.99 / 27) *mm/year^2 = 0.036666666 mm/year^2.
Velocity = v = change in height / change in time =
v = 3.3 mm/year
Global Sea Level height would be approximated roughly by a simple formula
h = v*t + (1/2)*a*t^2,
where unit of t is years and unit of h is mm.
Assumptions below calculation are that acceleration a and velocity v remain constant.
7400 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 551 years.
(time estimate for example amount of Greenland ice melt would rise global sea level 7.4 m
and this would take time 551 years ?)
1000 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 160 years.
500 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 98 years.
300 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 66 years.
200 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 48 years.
100 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 26 years.
50 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 14 years.
10 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 3 years.
Best Regards,
Hannu Poropudas
Kolamäentie 9E,
90900 Kiiminki / Oulu
Finland

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Starting year = 2020.

Post by Hannu Poropudas

Post by Hannu Poropudas
# 7400 mm
solve(7400 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -616.5196842, 654.7015024
# 1993+655=2648

2020+655=2675

Post by Hannu Poropudas

Post by Hannu Poropudas
# 1000 mm
solve(1000 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -215.2377433, 253.4195615
# 1993+253=2246

2020+253=2273

Post by Hannu Poropudas

Post by Hannu Poropudas
# 500 mm
solve(500 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
-147.1534595, 185.3352776
# 1993+185=2178

2020+185=2168

Post by Hannu Poropudas

Post by Hannu Poropudas
# 400 mm
solve(400 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -129.8474829, 168.0293011
# 1993+168=2161

2020+168=2188

Post by Hannu Poropudas

Post by Hannu Poropudas
# 300 mm
solve(300 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -110.2462440, 148.4280622
# 1993+148=2141
# 200 mm
solve(200 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -87.08608331, 125.2679015
# 1993+125=2118

2020+125=2145

Post by Hannu Poropudas

Post by Hannu Poropudas
# 100 mm
solve(100 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -57.19151525, 95.37333342
# 1993+95=2088

2020+95=2115

Post by Hannu Poropudas

Post by Hannu Poropudas
# 50 mm
solve(50 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -36.51246794, 74.69428610
# 1993+75=2068

2020+75=2095

Post by Hannu Poropudas

Post by Hannu Poropudas
# 40 mm
solve(40 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -31.36977849, 69.55159666
# 1993+70=2063

2020+70=2090

Post by Hannu Poropudas

Post by Hannu Poropudas
# 30 mm
solve(30 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -25.63968945, 63.82150762
# 1993+64=2057

2020+64=2084

Post by Hannu Poropudas

Post by Hannu Poropudas
# 20 mm
solve(20 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -19.05842774, 57.24024591
# 1993+57=2050

2020+57=2077

Post by Hannu Poropudas

Post by Hannu Poropudas
# 10 mm
solve(10 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -11.07392731, 49.25574548
# 1993+49=2042

2020+49=2069

Post by Hannu Poropudas
Best Regards,
Hannu Poropudas
Kolamäentie 9E
90900 Kiiminki / Oulu
Finland

I notice that in order to keep derivative of the formula in the
form (the global sea level rise speed formula)

dh/dt = v+at, v=3.3 mm/year, a = 0.99/27 mm/year^2

I should start calculation
of years from the year 2020 and not from the year 1993 which
I have used above.
I correct years only in above text of mine in case of Helsinki Example.

Hannu

Hannu Poropudas

2023-09-18 08:05:20 UTC

Permalink

Two REMARKs about 4.8 m local sea level rise in Helsinki area (year 2524) and
in Oulu area (year 2649) below. Please take a look below.

Post by Hannu Poropudas

CORRECTION: One term v*t added to the formula due approximation fit to the satellite measurement picture.
(Whole last posting rewritten below, I'am sorry about my mistake in that last posting of mine)
1. Sweet,W.V. et al, 2022.
Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities along U.S. Coastlines.
NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp.
(
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf
)
“Relative sea level along the contiquous U.S. (CONUS) coastline is expected to rise
on average as much over the next 30 years (0.25 – 0.30 m over 2020-2050) as it has
over the last 100 years (1920 - 2020).”
This would give sea level rise 0.83 cm/year – 1.00 cm/year.
Assumption is below calculation that this sea level rise remains constant.
Sea level rise 7.4 m would take time from 7.40*100*cm*year/1*cm = 740 years to
7.40*100*cm*year/(0.83*cm) = 892 years.
(time estimate example amount of Greenland ice melt would rise global sea level 7.4 m
and this would take time 740 – 892 years ?)
2. Ramsayer Kate, 2022.
RISING WATERS How NASA Monitoring Sea Level Rise.
https://www.nasa.gov/specials/sea-level-rise-2020
(.html format article, 12.7.2022)
Picture (.PNG format) axes of which are: vertical axis: Sea Height Variations (mm), (0-100)
horizontal axis: YEARS, (1993-2022). RATE OF CHANGE 3.4 millimeters per year since 1993.
Satellite Data: 1993-Present.
Data Source: Satellite sea level observations.
Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center.
Source: climate.nasa.gov
“Global Mean Sea Level from 1993 to 2020 has been rising about 3.3 millimeters per year.
TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, OSTM/Jason-2 and Jason-3. The data is recorded continues with
the launch of Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich. (Credit: NASA).”
“Global sea level is rising approximately 0.13 inches ( 3.3 millimeters) a year“
“That’s 30% more than when NASA launched its first satellite mission to measure
heights in 1992.”
(12.7.2022 taken from the net and also .PNG snapshot picture was taken.)
This would give 2.31 mm/year in 1993 and 3.3 mm/year in 2020,
(2020-1993 = 27 years).
Acceleration = a = change in velocity / change in time =
a = (0.99 / 27) *mm/year^2 = 0.036666666 mm/year^2.
Velocity = v = change in height / change in time =
v = 3.3 mm/year
Global Sea Level height would be approximated roughly by a simple formula
h = v*t + (1/2)*a*t^2,
where unit of t is years and unit of h is mm.
Assumptions below calculation are that acceleration a and velocity v remain constant.
7400 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 551 years.
(time estimate for example amount of Greenland ice melt would rise global sea level 7.4 m
and this would take time 551 years ?)
1000 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 160 years.
500 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 98 years.
300 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 66 years.
200 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 48 years.
100 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 26 years.
50 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 14 years.
10 mm = 3.3 mm/year*t + (1/2)* 0.036666666 mm/year^2*t^2, would give t = 3 years.
Best Regards,
Hannu Poropudas
Kolamäentie 9E,
90900 Kiiminki / Oulu
Finland

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

# 4800 mm
solve(4800=3.3*t+(0.5)*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -492.9468283, 531.1286465
# 1993 + 531 = 2524

Post by Hannu Poropudas
# 1000 mm
solve(1000 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -215.2377433, 253.4195615
# 1993+253=2246
# 500 mm
solve(500 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
-147.1534595, 185.3352776
# 1993+185=2178
# 400 mm
solve(400 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -129.8474829, 168.0293011
# 1993+168=2161
# 300 mm
solve(300 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -110.2462440, 148.4280622
# 1993+148=2141
# 200 mm
solve(200 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -87.08608331, 125.2679015
# 1993+125=2118
# 100 mm
solve(100 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -57.19151525, 95.37333342
# 1993+95=2088
# 50 mm
solve(50 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -36.51246794, 74.69428610
# 1993+75=2068
# 40 mm
solve(40 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -31.36977849, 69.55159666
# 1993+70=2063
# 30 mm
solve(30 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -25.63968945, 63.82150762
# 1993+64=2057
# 20 mm
solve(20 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -19.05842774, 57.24024591
# 1993+57=2050
# 10 mm
solve(10 = 3.3*t+0.5*(0.99/27)*t^2-4.0*t,t);
# -11.07392731, 49.25574548
# 1993+49=2042

Best Regards,
Hannu Poropudas
Kolamäentie 9E
90900 Kiiminki / Oulu
Finland
# 4800 mm
solve(4800=3.3*t+(0.5)*(0.99/27)*t^2-8.0*t,t);
# -399.3110825, 655.6747188
# 1993 + 656 = 2649

Best Regards, Hannu Poropudas